Monday, January 2, 2012
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Mortgage Rates Drop to Another 2011 Low
Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16, 2011.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2.8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1.6 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.5 percent compared with the previous week and was 6.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.26 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.53 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.32 percent for the Refinance Index.
"Continued anxiety surrounding the fragile economic situation in Europe led interest rates lower last week. However, refinance applications fell slightly, and purchase applications dropped further as we head into the end of the year," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "Remarkably low rates are not enough, as many homeowners continue to hold back due to lack of equity in their properties, poor credit and a weak job market."
The refinance share of mortgage activity reached a high this year of 80.7 percent of total applications from 79.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to a low this year of 5.1 percent from 5.6 percent of total applications from the previous week.
The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $217,774 in November 2011, up from $213,430 in October 2011. The average loan size for a refinance increased from $217,153 in October to $220,523 in November. The average government purchase loan size declined from October to November, from $186,263 to $170,742. The largest purchase loans were made in the Pacific region at $308,307. The largest refinance loans were also made in the Pacific region at $304,509.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.08 percent, the lowest rate this year, from 4.12 percent, with points increasing to 0.49 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) decreased to 4.44 percent, the lowest rate this year, from 4.47 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.93 percent, the lowest rate this year, from 3.94 percent, with points decreasing to 0.63 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.39 percent, the lowest rate this year, from 3.44 percent, with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.52 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.90 percent, the lowest rate this year, from 2.93 percent, with points decreasing to 0.46 from 0.53 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate also decreased from last week.
For more information, visit www.mortgagebankers.org.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Obama Administration Announces Decline in Homelessness in 2011
On
a single night last January, 636,017 people were homeless in the United
States, a 2.1 percent decline from the year before. That’s the key
finding of a new count on homelessness announced recently by U.S.
Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan. Donovan made the
announcement at a meeting of the U.S. Interagency Council on
Homelessness where he was joined by HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and
Labor Secretary Hilda Solis.
HUD’s annual “point in time” estimate of the number of homeless persons and families is based on data reported by more than 3,000 cities and counties. While number of homeless persons vary from community, these communities are reporting modest declines in homelessness in every category or subpopulation including individuals, families, veterans and those experiencing long-term or chronic homelessness.
Donovan, who personally participated in the 2011 nighttime count said, “It’s remarkable that in the wake of the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, we’re witnessing an across-the-board drop in homelessness. This tells us that the Obama Administration’s homelessness strategy is working and the results spur us to continue working to end homelessness in America once and for all.”
“These numbers are a step in the right direction, especially for some of our more vulnerable populations such as veterans,” says Secretary Solis, who served as chair of the Interagency Council in 2011. “With many working families continuing to struggle, the President’s plan will allow us to redouble our efforts to end and prevent homelessness.”
“Reducing homelessness among Veterans by 12 percent since January 2010 is a clear sign of progress, but our work is not complete until no Veteran has to sleep on the street,” said Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric K. Shinseki. “We have been successful in achieving this milestone due to strong leadership from the President and hard work by countless community organizations and our federal, state, and local partners who are committed to helping Veterans and their families get back on their feet.”
During one night in late January of 2011, local planners or “Continuums of Care” across the nation conducted a one-night count of their sheltered and unsheltered homeless populations. These one-night ‘snapshot’ counts are then reported to HUD as part of state and local grant applications. While the data reported to HUD does not directly determine the level of a community’s grant funding, these estimates, as well as full-year counts to be released later next year, are crucial in understanding the scope of homelessness and measuring progress in reducing it.
The Obama Administration’s strategic plan to end homelessness is called Opening Doors—a roadmap by 19 federal member agencies of the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness along with local and state partners in the public and private sectors. The plan puts the country on a path to end veterans and chronic homelessness by 2015; and to ending homelessness among children, family, and youth by 2020. The Plan presents strategies building upon the lesson that mainstream housing, health, education, and human service programs must be fully engaged and coordinated to prevent and end homelessness.
“Over the last 18 months, we’ve seen unprecedented levels of collaboration within the federal government,” said U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness Executive Director Barbara Poppe. “The federal government is partnering more effectively with states and local communities across the nation to align our efforts to make progress on the goals of Opening Doors.”
The reductions reported today are attributed in part to the impact of HUD’s $1.5 billion Homeless Prevention and Rapid Re-housing Program (HPRP), a program designed to assist individuals and families confronted by a sudden economic crisis. Funded through the Recovery Act, HPRP spared more than one million persons from homelessness by offering them short-term rent assistance, security and utility deposits, and moving expenses. The US Conference of Mayors has described HPRP as “fundamentally changing” the way communities respond to homelessness.
In addition, HUD and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs are collaborating on a joint program called HUD-VA Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH). To date, this targeted rental assistance program provided more than 33,000 homeless veterans permanent supportive housing through rental vouchers provided by HUD along with supportive services and case management by VA. The national estimate announced today reveal a particularly large decrease in the number of homeless veterans—nearly 12 percent.
Key Findings of HUD’s estimate:
On a single night in January 2011, HUD and its partners found:
• 636,017 people were homeless, a reduction of 2.1 percent (649,917) from January 2010, and 5.3 percent (671,888) since 2007.
• Veteran homelessness fell by nearly 12 percent (or 8,834 persons) since January 2010.
• Homelessness among individuals declined 2 percent (or 13,900) from a year ago and 5.6 percent since 2007. Meanwhile, the number of homeless families fell 2.8 percent from last year and 8 percent since 2007
• Street homelessness (“the unsheltered homeless population) declined by 13 percent (or 36,786 people) since 2007.
• Persons experiencing long-term or chronic homelessness declined 2.4 percent (or 2,664) from last year and 13.5 percent (or 16,635 persons) since 2007. This steep reduction in chronic homelessness is largely attributed to the sharp growth in the supply of permanent supportive housing units – more than 30,000 beds between 2010 and 2011, and by more than 83,000 since 2007.
• Five states accounted for half of the nation’s total homeless population: California (21.4 percent); New York (10 percent); Florida (8.9 percent); Texas (5.8 percent); and Georgia (3.3 percent).
For more information, visit www.hud.gov.
HUD’s annual “point in time” estimate of the number of homeless persons and families is based on data reported by more than 3,000 cities and counties. While number of homeless persons vary from community, these communities are reporting modest declines in homelessness in every category or subpopulation including individuals, families, veterans and those experiencing long-term or chronic homelessness.
Donovan, who personally participated in the 2011 nighttime count said, “It’s remarkable that in the wake of the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, we’re witnessing an across-the-board drop in homelessness. This tells us that the Obama Administration’s homelessness strategy is working and the results spur us to continue working to end homelessness in America once and for all.”
“These numbers are a step in the right direction, especially for some of our more vulnerable populations such as veterans,” says Secretary Solis, who served as chair of the Interagency Council in 2011. “With many working families continuing to struggle, the President’s plan will allow us to redouble our efforts to end and prevent homelessness.”
“Reducing homelessness among Veterans by 12 percent since January 2010 is a clear sign of progress, but our work is not complete until no Veteran has to sleep on the street,” said Secretary of Veterans Affairs Eric K. Shinseki. “We have been successful in achieving this milestone due to strong leadership from the President and hard work by countless community organizations and our federal, state, and local partners who are committed to helping Veterans and their families get back on their feet.”
During one night in late January of 2011, local planners or “Continuums of Care” across the nation conducted a one-night count of their sheltered and unsheltered homeless populations. These one-night ‘snapshot’ counts are then reported to HUD as part of state and local grant applications. While the data reported to HUD does not directly determine the level of a community’s grant funding, these estimates, as well as full-year counts to be released later next year, are crucial in understanding the scope of homelessness and measuring progress in reducing it.
The Obama Administration’s strategic plan to end homelessness is called Opening Doors—a roadmap by 19 federal member agencies of the U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness along with local and state partners in the public and private sectors. The plan puts the country on a path to end veterans and chronic homelessness by 2015; and to ending homelessness among children, family, and youth by 2020. The Plan presents strategies building upon the lesson that mainstream housing, health, education, and human service programs must be fully engaged and coordinated to prevent and end homelessness.
“Over the last 18 months, we’ve seen unprecedented levels of collaboration within the federal government,” said U.S. Interagency Council on Homelessness Executive Director Barbara Poppe. “The federal government is partnering more effectively with states and local communities across the nation to align our efforts to make progress on the goals of Opening Doors.”
The reductions reported today are attributed in part to the impact of HUD’s $1.5 billion Homeless Prevention and Rapid Re-housing Program (HPRP), a program designed to assist individuals and families confronted by a sudden economic crisis. Funded through the Recovery Act, HPRP spared more than one million persons from homelessness by offering them short-term rent assistance, security and utility deposits, and moving expenses. The US Conference of Mayors has described HPRP as “fundamentally changing” the way communities respond to homelessness.
In addition, HUD and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs are collaborating on a joint program called HUD-VA Supportive Housing (HUD-VASH). To date, this targeted rental assistance program provided more than 33,000 homeless veterans permanent supportive housing through rental vouchers provided by HUD along with supportive services and case management by VA. The national estimate announced today reveal a particularly large decrease in the number of homeless veterans—nearly 12 percent.
Key Findings of HUD’s estimate:
On a single night in January 2011, HUD and its partners found:
• 636,017 people were homeless, a reduction of 2.1 percent (649,917) from January 2010, and 5.3 percent (671,888) since 2007.
• Veteran homelessness fell by nearly 12 percent (or 8,834 persons) since January 2010.
• Homelessness among individuals declined 2 percent (or 13,900) from a year ago and 5.6 percent since 2007. Meanwhile, the number of homeless families fell 2.8 percent from last year and 8 percent since 2007
• Street homelessness (“the unsheltered homeless population) declined by 13 percent (or 36,786 people) since 2007.
• Persons experiencing long-term or chronic homelessness declined 2.4 percent (or 2,664) from last year and 13.5 percent (or 16,635 persons) since 2007. This steep reduction in chronic homelessness is largely attributed to the sharp growth in the supply of permanent supportive housing units – more than 30,000 beds between 2010 and 2011, and by more than 83,000 since 2007.
• Five states accounted for half of the nation’s total homeless population: California (21.4 percent); New York (10 percent); Florida (8.9 percent); Texas (5.8 percent); and Georgia (3.3 percent).
For more information, visit www.hud.gov.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Consumers Expect Big Rent Hikes in 2012
By Steve Cook
Consumer sentiment on housing expectations is stabilizing as the year winds down and consumers are adopting a “wait and see” attitude towards 2012, according to Fannie Mae’s November National Housing Survey. However, on one front there is consensus: rents will rise significantly.
On average, Americans expect home rental prices to increase by 3.2 percent over the next year. Some 41 percent said rents will increase next year, 48 percent expect rents to stay the same and only 6 percent expect them to fall. The November numbers showed a slight retreat from October, when 43 expected rents to rise and 47 expected them to stay the same.
Consumer expectations for next year exceed the current level of rent increases. The average monthly rent for all categories, including apartments and single-family homes, was $846 nationwide in the third quarter, up 2.5 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to Local Market Monitor. Reis, Inc. data puts the third quarter increases at 2.3 percent year-over-year in the 80 plus markets it tracks. The National Association of REALTORS® forecasts multifamily rents to rise 3.5 percent next year, virtually what consumers expect.
Rising rents impact the homeownership markets in two ways. Monthly mortgage payments on the median priced home-including taxes and insurance-are increasingly falling below average rent levels. In 15 cities today, it is less expensive to rent than to buy, according to the Wall Street Journal. Higher rents also make investment purchases of residential properties more attractive. Increasingly, investors are buying to rent out properties for extended periods of time rather than selling.
Consumer home price expectations changed slightly in November, moving from negative to positive territory for the first time in six months, with respondents expecting home prices to increase by 0.2 percent over the next year.
“Though their home price expectations have become slightly positive, consumers remain concerned about the direction of the economy and continue to view their household finances as being relatively flat,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Most Americans expect no improvement in their personal financial situation in the next 12 months and will likely remain wary about undertaking the significant financial obligation associated with homeownership until their view of their income, expenses, and job security heads in a more positive direction.”
Highlights:
• Twenty-two percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next year (up 3 percentage points since last month), while 22 percent say they expect home prices to decline, down 1 percentage point since last month. 53 percent say prices will stay the same, a 2 percentage point drop from October.
• Thirty-three percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months, down 3 percentage points from October and a return to the level seen in September.
• Sixty-eight percent of respondents say it is a good time to buy a home (down by 1 percentage point since last month), and just 10 percent say it is a good time to sell, which is unchanged from the previous two months.
• On average, Americans expect home rental prices to increase by 3.2 percent over the next year, a 0.1 percent decrease from October.
• Just 6 percent expect a decline in home rental prices (unchanged since last month), while 41 percent of respondents believe that home rental prices will increase in the next 12 months.
• Thirty-two percent of Americans say they would rent their next home, while 63 percent say they would buy, down 3 percentage points since last month and a return to the level seen.
For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
20 Metros Join the Improvement Movement
....And we're on the list!
The number of improving housing markets continued to expand for a fourth consecutive month in December, rising from 30 to 41 on the latest National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released recently. The December list featured 20 new additions, including several major markets such as Washington, D.C.; San Jose, Calif.; and Toledo, Ohio. Meanwhile, nine smaller markets dropped off the list, primarily due to softer house prices.
The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months.
New entrants to the list in December include the following:
Ann Arbor, MI
Athens, GA
Boulder, CO
Burlington, VT
Canton, OH
Charleston, WV
Danville, VA
Fort Wayne, IN
Grand Forks, ND
Jackson, MS
Kingsport, TN
Laredo, TX
Lincoln, NE
Muncie, IN
Muskegon, MI
San Jose, CA
Scranton, PA
Toledo, OH
Washington, DC
Winchester, VA
"The increases we continue to see in the number and geographic diversity of improving metros are quite encouraging, and evidence of the fact that all housing markets are dependent on uniquely local factors," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. He noted that as of December, a total of 21 states and the District of Columbia are represented on the improving markets list—up from14 states represented in November.
"The December IMI results are very much in keeping with the latest government housing data and our own builder surveys, which have shown modest signs of improvement in certain individual markets where employment is gaining and distressed properties are not as numerous," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "These gradual improvements are now becoming evident not just in small, energy-producing metros that have previously dominated the IMI, but also in several larger markets and areas with more diverse economies."
The nine markets that dropped off the IMI in December include Alexandria, La.; Fairbanks, Alaska; Hinesville, Ga.; Houma, La.; Jonesboro, Ark.; Lima, Ohio; Pine Bluff, Ark.; Sumter, S.C. and Waco, Tex. All but two of these metros fell from the list due to softening house prices. The exceptions to the rule were Jonesboro and Waco, where declines were registered in employment and single-family housing permits, respectively.
The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.
For more information, visit www.nahb.org/imi.
The number of improving housing markets continued to expand for a fourth consecutive month in December, rising from 30 to 41 on the latest National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released recently. The December list featured 20 new additions, including several major markets such as Washington, D.C.; San Jose, Calif.; and Toledo, Ohio. Meanwhile, nine smaller markets dropped off the list, primarily due to softer house prices.
The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months.
New entrants to the list in December include the following:
Ann Arbor, MI
Athens, GA
Boulder, CO
Burlington, VT
Canton, OH
Charleston, WV
Danville, VA
Fort Wayne, IN
Grand Forks, ND
Jackson, MS
Kingsport, TN
Laredo, TX
Lincoln, NE
Muncie, IN
Muskegon, MI
San Jose, CA
Scranton, PA
Toledo, OH
Washington, DC
Winchester, VA
"The increases we continue to see in the number and geographic diversity of improving metros are quite encouraging, and evidence of the fact that all housing markets are dependent on uniquely local factors," said NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. He noted that as of December, a total of 21 states and the District of Columbia are represented on the improving markets list—up from14 states represented in November.
"The December IMI results are very much in keeping with the latest government housing data and our own builder surveys, which have shown modest signs of improvement in certain individual markets where employment is gaining and distressed properties are not as numerous," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "These gradual improvements are now becoming evident not just in small, energy-producing metros that have previously dominated the IMI, but also in several larger markets and areas with more diverse economies."
The nine markets that dropped off the IMI in December include Alexandria, La.; Fairbanks, Alaska; Hinesville, Ga.; Houma, La.; Jonesboro, Ark.; Lima, Ohio; Pine Bluff, Ark.; Sumter, S.C. and Waco, Tex. All but two of these metros fell from the list due to softening house prices. The exceptions to the rule were Jonesboro and Waco, where declines were registered in employment and single-family housing permits, respectively.
The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metro area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.
For more information, visit www.nahb.org/imi.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Home Buying Looks Better for 20-Somethings
Young
Americans under 30-a prime age group for first-time home buying-are
feeling considerably better about their financial picture than they did a
year ago, according to a major new study from Bankrate.
Nearly one-third of those younger than 30 say their overall situation is better today than it was last year and 25 feel more secure about their jobs than they did in November 2010.
By comparison, older Americans remain glum. Only 1 in 10 Americans age 30 to 64 feel more secure in their jobs now than they did a year ago. Three times as many feel less secure. Only 17 percent of those approaching retirement (age 50-64) feel better about their overall financial situation than a year ago.
Workers with less education and lower paying jobs feel less secure. Roughly a quarter of college grads feel less secure today than a year ago, but 34 percent with a high school education or less fell less secure. Among low earners (less than $30,000), only 19 percent feel better off, while 38 percent feel their overall finances are worse. Nearly half of those earning less than $50,000 say they’ll spend less on the holidays, versus about 30 percent of those earning more.
“Recent years have been hard, and that’s a tough feeling for some people to shake. Almost half of the people surveyed said their situation is about the same today as a year ago. Of the rest, more think their situation (is) worse than better. None of this surprises me because our national mood tilts toward pessimism right now. But I’m reminded of the old saying that it seems darkest right before the dawn.
Recent years have been hard, and that’s a tough feeling for some people to shake. Chances are good that those people will still feel bad even as their financial situation slowly improves. Even in the best of economic times, improvement comes in small increments. There aren’t a lot of “Hallelujah!” days in personal finance, commented Dan Danford, CFP, principal at Family Investment Center in St. Joseph, Mo.
For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com.
Nearly one-third of those younger than 30 say their overall situation is better today than it was last year and 25 feel more secure about their jobs than they did in November 2010.
By comparison, older Americans remain glum. Only 1 in 10 Americans age 30 to 64 feel more secure in their jobs now than they did a year ago. Three times as many feel less secure. Only 17 percent of those approaching retirement (age 50-64) feel better about their overall financial situation than a year ago.
Workers with less education and lower paying jobs feel less secure. Roughly a quarter of college grads feel less secure today than a year ago, but 34 percent with a high school education or less fell less secure. Among low earners (less than $30,000), only 19 percent feel better off, while 38 percent feel their overall finances are worse. Nearly half of those earning less than $50,000 say they’ll spend less on the holidays, versus about 30 percent of those earning more.
“Recent years have been hard, and that’s a tough feeling for some people to shake. Almost half of the people surveyed said their situation is about the same today as a year ago. Of the rest, more think their situation (is) worse than better. None of this surprises me because our national mood tilts toward pessimism right now. But I’m reminded of the old saying that it seems darkest right before the dawn.
Recent years have been hard, and that’s a tough feeling for some people to shake. Chances are good that those people will still feel bad even as their financial situation slowly improves. Even in the best of economic times, improvement comes in small increments. There aren’t a lot of “Hallelujah!” days in personal finance, commented Dan Danford, CFP, principal at Family Investment Center in St. Joseph, Mo.
For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Builder Confidence Rises Three Points
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose by three points to 20 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for November, released last week. The gain builds on a revised three-point increase in October, and brings the confidence gauge to its highest level since May of 2010.
“While this second solid monthly gain on the builder confidence scale is encouraging, the overall measure remains quite low due to the many challenges that home building continues to face with regard to the high number of foreclosures, the difficulties of obtaining construction financing and accurate appraisals, and the restrictive lending environment that is discouraging potential buyers,” says Bob Nielsen, NAHB Chairman and a home builder from Reno, Nev. “These problems must be addressed so that housing can contribute to economic and job growth the way it has in the past.”
“This second consecutive gain in the HMI is evidence that well-qualified buyers in select areas are being tempted back into the market by today’s extremely favorable mortgage rates and prices,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
“We are anticipating further, gradual gains in the builder confidence gauge heading into 2012 due to these pockets of improving conditions that are slowly spreading.”
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
Each of the HMI’s three component indexes continued to build on gains registered in the previous month in November. The component gauging current sales conditions rose three points to 20—its highest level since May 2010— while the component gauging future sales expectations rose two points to 25—its highest level since March of 2011. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose one point to 15, which was its highest point since May of 2010.
The HMI rose in three out of four regions in November, with a three-point gain to 17 registered in the Northeast, an eight-point gain to 23 registered in the Midwest, and a two-point gain to 21 registered in the South. After posting a big increase in October, the West returned to trend this month with a six-point decline to 15.
For more information, visit www.nahb.org.
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